In the late 1980s British writer-journalist Alexander Frater was preparing for his journey to India for a race with the rains. His research before the journey – which would later turn into the book ‘Chasing the Monsoon’ – revealed a Southwest monsoon that “had grown spiteful and capricious” around those years.
Frater wrote, “Some areas of India were paid only fleeting visits, some no visits at all. This wilfulness puzzled the weathermen and frightened the politicians; a failed monsoon could mean riots and lost elections. But most of all it frightened the ordinary rural people whose crops and lives depended on it. They, long accustomed to its ancient rhythms and sturdy reliability, found its absence as shocking as, perhaps, death or madness in the family.”
What KSNDMC data shows
Cut to 2023, an El Nino year, and the scanty rainfalls and the erratic patterns are not as shocking as in the 1980s. But the problems remain the same.
A weak monsoon over the State has left the people of Karnataka staring at the sky for most of August. Data from Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) showed the State received 487.9 mm of rainfall between June 1 and August 30, against a normal of 839 mm for the period, bringing Karnataka under the “deficit” category. (A -20 to -59% departure from the normal rainfall is considered ‘deficient’)
From crop loss to the Cauvery inter-State water sharing issue, the problems triggered by a weak monsoon paint a cloudy picture for Karnataka. But what caused Bengaluru’s driest-ever August in the first place?
Biparjoy-El Nino effect
The southwest monsoon was off to a weak start in Karnataka in the month of June. With the extremely severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy sucking the air dry thereby weakening the conditions required for monsoon, the onset of southwest monsoon was delayed by a week.
However, a scanty rainfall in June was compensated for in July. A 29% surplus of rain in the month helped to reduce the overall rainfall deficit. Agricultural activities in the state picked up. Towards the end of July though, weather models forecasted a “below normal” rainfall in Karnataka from August to September.
The influence of El Nino was to grow stronger by August. El Nino is a natural phenomenon characterised by unusual warming of waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In India, its impact is felt in the form of warmer summers and weaker monsoons.
AAP leader Mukhyamantri Chandru joined the farmer’s protest led by Federation of Karnataka Farmers Associations leader Kurubur Shanthakumar against the release of water from Kabini reservoir in Mysuru.
| Photo Credit:
M A Sriram
‘Air-conditioned’ City sizzles
On 28 August, Bengaluru experienced its hottest August day in 10 years with temperatures touching 32.6 degrees Celsius, 4.5 degrees more than normal. Lack of rainfall has also led to a drinking water crisis in parts of the State. Bengaluru and its outskirts are seeing lowered groundwater tables and borewells gone dry.
Subsequently, the tanker water prices have shot up through the roof, meanwhile, officials are pondering the drilling of additional borewells. Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) chief commissioner Tushar Giri Nath earlier this month told the media that ₹5 Crore has been earmarked for the supply of water through tankers to address the water supply gaps in the 110 villages.
What it has meant for agriculture
The onset of the southwest monsoon is also when the farmers begin to sow Kharif crops in Karnataka. The Kharif crops in the state include millets, paddy, pulses, groundnut, red chillies and sugar cane among others.
But this year, the late arrival of the rains delayed the sowing of crops, resulting in a shortened window for the same. As per data from KSNDMC, the total sown area of kharif crops was 66.68 lakh hectares as of 25 August. The target was 82.35 lakh hectares and in 2022 the coverage was 74.37 lakh hectares.
The report also noted that agriculture crops in about 71 percent of the total geographical area experienced moderate to severe moisture stress. Poor rainfall and lack of moisture could result in stunted growth, infestation, and diseases in seedlings and standing crops. This would mean lesser than expected yield, losses for farmers and a rise in food price inflation.
Reeling from what looks like a never-ending summer, farmer groups have been demanding a declaration of drought. Karnataka is currently assessing the status of crops in 120 taluks that have received less rainfall this season. This ‘ground truthing’ or crop survey is a mandatory prerequisite as per the Union Government’s guidelines for declaration of drought.
A deficient monsoon would not bode well for the new Congress government in the State which had announced major schemes like free grains and electricity after coming into power. Already tackling a precarious financial situation, scanty showers would further push the government into financial pressure and political crisis.
Cauvery river water flows near Nimishamba temple at Ganjam near Srirangapattana in Mandya district .
| Photo Credit:
BHAGYA PRAKASH K / THE HINDU
Soaring tension around Cauvery
The scanty monsoon has also brought back the age-old Cauvery dispute to the table. On 29 August, the Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA) directed Karnataka to release 5,000 Cusecs of water to Tamil Nadu till September 12.
Tamil Nadu had earlier demanded 24,000 Cusecs, while Karnataka maintained the state could release only 3,000 Cusecs.
Cauvery River originates at Talakavery in the Brahmagiri Hills of Karnataka, flows through Tamil Nadu, and drains into the Bay of Bengal. The majority of its watershed regions fall in Tamil Nadu. Kerala and Puducherry are the other riparian regions.
Water sharing of the river has been a bone of contention between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu whose origin dates back to the pre-independence period. The dispute rears its head in rain deficit years often leading to conflicts and rising tension between people in both states.
In 1990, the Government of India constituted the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal (CWDT) to adjudicate the water disputes between the states. As per CWDT Karnataka should release around 170 TMC (thousand million cubic feet) to Tamil Nadu in a ‘normal’ water year.
Absence of scientific water sharing formula
Experts have often pointed out that the conflicting situation would continue as long as the ad hoc nature of problem resolution and lack of a distress formula are not looked into. While the tribunal has laid out guidelines for water-sharing during normal years, the same is missing for deficit years. Another issue is the water-intensive cropping patterns followed in both states.
Earlier this month the Supreme Court ordered Karnataka to release 10,000 cusecs of water to Tamil Nadu for 15 days following a petition by Tamil Nadu to release 24,000 cusecs of water. Karnataka, however, appealed to reconsider the decision considering the scarcity of water in the Cauvery basin owing to a poor southwest monsoon so far this year.
Farmers in the Mysuru belt are concerned that the vagaries of monsoon may force them to change the cropping pattern.
| Photo Credit:
SRIRAM MA
Where reservoir levels stand
The water levels of Cauvery Basin reservoirs such as Harangi, Hemavathi, K.R.S, and Kabini have decreased in the last seven days. According to KSNDMC data, the levels at Hemavathi, K.R.S, and Kabini reservoirs are lesser than the average levels of the corresponding periods of the last 10 years.
The latest direction by CWMA comes amid opposition from farmers’ groups across the Cauvery basin in Karnataka against releasing water to Tamil Nadu. With weather forecasts for September varying between normal and below-normal rainfall, the government as well as the people of the state may have to sweat it out until the skies open.
